The Return of the Cold War?
There are certainly those who either wish or still believe that the Cold War never ended and criticisms of Russia’s (lack of) economic and political reforms are certainly not difficult to find. The recent discovery of a listening device hidden in a rock is a reminder of those covert (or in this case not so covert) espionage tactics of the Cold War. But this is not evidence in itself of a return to the days of military standoff between two super powers. And certainly a return to a Cold War doesn’t appear, at least on the surface, as likely. However we must seriously look at the resurgence of Russia under Putin’s leadership.
Europe’s January gas shortages were a shocking wake up call for the EU. The sudden realisation that the EU is in fact just the destination at the end of the pipeline not the important geo-political power that it strives (or at least dreams) to be, worried many leaders in Europe. In a world where the hold over natural resources equals power, Europe appears as if it is standing naked in the centre of Red Square in the middle of winter. Once again Russia has become a threat to the stability of Europe.
Putin is also re-evaluating Russia’s position in the world hierarchy. He is carrying out reform to convert Russia’s large army into a professional rapid reaction force, and investing in new technology.
Then we have Russia’s close relationship with Iran to worry about. There is still hope, however unlikely this may appear, that Russia will help to solve the standoff over nuclear facilities. However their close relationship means that western leaders, who needs Russia’s help, are reluctant to criticise Russia.
Worryingly still is Putin’s plans on the domestic front where we have seen the centralisation of power and movements away from democracy. For example in 2004 Putin abandoned elections for regional governors, effectively making them Kremlin puppets and last year created restrictions on NGOs in Russia.
So should we be worried?
The return to a bi-polar world conflict is extremely unlikely. The future is going to consist of multi-polar powers including India and China. Russia is just re-evaluating its position. It is now the second largest exporter of oil and the largest exporter of gas. With resources comes power and a resurgent Russia is certainly something we will have to get used to. What is more worrying is Europe’s preparations for the future. This week we saw gas prices increase by 22% in the UK. There will be further increases to come. Europe needs to develop its own energy strategy, maybe it should take advice from Sweden, the only country that has pledged to rid itself of fossil fuels by 2020. If it doesn’t then we’re all going to rely on whether Putin wants to keep the tap running or not.