Vox Polis

It takes real effort for a government to be “not fit for purpose”. It’s not just the big headline grabbing stuff like losing criminals and filling prisons to bursting point the small things count as well. Rubber stamps for instance:

When a government department can’t even rubber stamp stuff you know there’s trouble. At the time of posting it’s unclear if this stamp shortage applies only to stamps for the mystical “Untied Kingdom” or to our own country as well. Whether the big split will make a jot of difference remains to be seen.

Good to see that the Government is to introduce an unworkable, ill thought out, populist, immigration policy - not for the first time.

Restricting workers from Romania and Bulgaria will mean:

• Britain cannot benefit from the advantages they bring.
• The measures suggested by Reid, which include allowing self employed workers, are unworkable. Workers will just use self employment as a loophole (they’ll all become consultants).
• It should be left to the market not some Migration Advisory Council.
• Most will not come to the UK anyway.
• You can’t stop them coming here even if you wanted to.
• They’ll just work in the grey economy and not pay tax.

So the Government has decided to agree with the Tories and introduce permits for Bulgarians and Romanians.  This is likely to fail to achieve any of its goals, because people will come to the UK anyway and work here illegally or move to a member state where there are no restrictions.  We’re also likely to lose out on the best workers.

And I thought there was going to be a proper debate about immigration.  Yet again the Government is making policy based on misguided tabloid pressure.

It seems that Romania is preparing to place its own restrictions on worker migration when it joins the EU next year in retaliation to those planned by Britain and other member states. Although you might think that no one in their right mind would want to work in Romania where the average wage is $7,700 - Romania does face a shortage in construction workers - so all those Polish builders could end up there (the average Polish wage is $6,948) unless Poland places restrictions too.

Have the Tories learnt nothing from their last two election defeats?? They’re back onto the immigration debate, calling for restrictions on immigrants from Bulgaria and Romania when they join the EU next year. This is a bad idea because:

• As I have pointed out here and here, we’re unlikely to swamped with new arrivals.

• Restrictions and quotas will not stop them coming to the UK. It will only stop them working here legally (the black market will be very welcoming). This is because of the Free Movement directive, which even allows them to claim health care and benefits.

• Think how they feel. Does no one else think it’s hypocritical to allow Western Europeans to visit, work, buy up all the nice land/houses in Eastern/Central Europe, but not allow them to do the same??

Thanks to the Sunday Times we now know a bit more about the Government’s views on the accession of Bulgaria and Romania into the EU. Interestingly enough those views are: We’re stuffed! Let’s panic!

It seems that the Government’s worried that “undesirables” will enter the UK. So they’ve come up with a list of those who arent welcome- all 45,000 of them. I’m not sure what they’ll do with this list as they’ve already admitted they can’t do anything about them coming here (mostly because of a mixture of EU laws- the freedom of movement directive is a good starting place for more information). But at least if they have a list they might know which “undesirables” have entered the country. Although when it comes to tracing people, needles and haystacks aways come to mind.

I’ve already mentioned my support for enlargement of the EU and I standby that view. And i’m still not convinced by the argument that hundreds of thousands of Romanians and Bulgarians will pack up their belongings and head to the UK on the 1st January. For one thing its cold here, and most of their cousins live in warmer climates.

Thanks to the leaked documents we know what the Government’s estimates are on immigration. IPPR said 56,000. Migrant watch said 300,000 (in the first 20 months). The Government?

Right bang in the middle with - 60,000-140,000.

Maybe we should have a bet to see who’s the closest. My moneys on 70k.

Well IPPR have been getting some flack this week from Guido, who pointed out some of the “advantages” of being so close to the present Government. Guido points out how the IPPR will lose influence under the inevitable rise of Brown as PM. But it seems that they’re influence is already wanning. The Government openly criticised their recent findings on immigration in this written question:

Immigration: Irregular Migrants

Lord Judd asked Her Majesty’s Government:

What is their response to the publication by the Institute for Public Policy Research, Irregular Migration in the United Kingdom, and, in particular, to the estimate that the forced deportation of all irregular migrants could cost the taxpayer some £4.7 billion while the regularising of work status could net some £1 billion for HM Treasury. [HL6018]

The Minister of State, Home Office (Baroness Scotland of Asthal): The figures provided in the Institute for Public Policy Research’s paper are questionable and must be treated with caution.

You’ve probably noticed that Baroness Scotland is a minister for the Home Office. Well the IPPR certaintly got their own back last weekend with the publication of the internal survey showing that only 6% of staff think the Home Office thought poor performance was dealth with effectively (the second worst department next to the Department of Transport)

Long live the IPPR!

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As long as Bulgaria can get a hold of its crime problems it looks like both Bulgaria and Romania will be joining the EU club next year. I believe this is good news for the EU, but that’s because I don’t believe that there should be any limits to the EU. Why not include Turkey, Serbia, hell, even Russia if she wants to join.

It seems that once again the issue of migration is a big concern. When the EU expanded to include 10 new members in 2004, only Sweden, Ireland and the UK allowed the free movement of workers. This has greatly benefited our country and the economy. By being one of only a few countries we were able to attract some of the best workers.

But there is a fear that the UK won’t be as accommodating when Romania and Bulgaria join. MigrantWatch says 300,000 people will come flocking to the UK, IPPR says 56,000. Who’s right?

Well I think that IPPR’s analysis is correct although their figures probably a little low.
The IPPR have pointed out that the UK isn’t high on the list of new places to leave for Bulgarians and Romanians. Most want to live in the mediterranean. Also other member states are more likely to open their borders this time. However I do believe more that 56,000 will turn up. But those that do will be of great benefit to this country. Don’t give in to the short sightedness promoted by the Daily Mail and others. Let us all benefit fully from an expanded EU.